On Friday, S&P futures experienced a slight increase as traders anticipated inflation data that may provide additional insights into the Federal Reserve’s forthcoming interest rate decision. Futures associated with the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 57 points, representing a 0.1% rise. S&P futures increased by 0.2%, while Nasdaq 100 futures rose by 0.4%. Market participants are closely monitoring a range of economic indicators, with the November payrolls report set to be released following the Federal Reserve’s meeting on December 10. On Friday, the market will have the opportunity to analyze a new set of economic releases.
The Commerce Department is set to publish the postponed September figures regarding consumer spending and income, alongside the personal consumption expenditures price index, which serves as the Federal Reserve’s main measure of inflation. The release of the PCE was postponed as a result of the unprecedented U.S. government shutdown, and it will provide the Federal Reserve with its last perspective on inflation prior to the interest rate decision on Wednesday. In the previous session, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite closed slightly higher, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the day just below the flatline. The tech-heavy Nasdaq recorded its eighth positive session out of nine, supported by a 3.4% increase in Meta shares and a 2.1% rise in Nvidia.
On Thursday, investors analyzed a report indicating that job cuts in November surpassed 1 million for the year. Factors such as corporate restructuring, artificial intelligence, and tariffs were cited as contributors to these losses. Thursday’s release of the latest weekly jobless claims numbers, indicating new applications for unemployment insurance at their lowest level since September 2022, did not seem to influence the market’s perception of the Federal Reserve’s position. Investors are anticipating that indications of a weakening labor market will prompt the central bank to reduce its benchmark rate by a quarter percentage point at the forthcoming meeting. Market participants are currently assigning an 87% probability to a rate cut occurring next Wednesday, a significant increase compared to the assessments made just a few weeks prior, as indicated. The key fed funds futures rate is presently aimed at a range of 3.75%-4%, with trading occurring close to the upper limit of this spectrum, reflecting persistent pressures in short-term funding markets.
“The data we are receiving is mixed, and various signals are emerging. Inflation is still sticky where it is,” stated Sonali Basak. “2026 presents uncertainties regarding inflation. No one possesses that crystal ball. The labor market has demonstrated resilience, characterized by a ‘low hire-low fire’ dynamic. If that tips over, then you find yourself in a rather precarious situation next year.” Equities are managing to secure modest advances this week. The S&P 500 has increased by 0.1%, whereas the Nasdaq and the 30-stock Dow have risen by approximately 0.6% and 0.3%, respectively.