S&P Futures declined on Monday, influenced by the latest U.S. warning regarding Iran, following a fourth consecutive weekly drop in the major U.S. benchmarks. Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average indicated a decline of 327 points, reflecting a decrease of 0.7%. S&P 500 futures declined by 0.8%, while Nasdaq-100 futures experienced a drop of 1%. The Cboe Volatility Index, often referred to on the Street as the market’s “fear gauge,” has surpassed 30 for the first time since earlier this month.

The developments occurred as the conflict in Iran progressed into its fourth week, with tensions intensifying over the weekend. President Donald Trump issued a warning regarding potential military action against Iranian power plants should the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for oil and energy transportation, remain closed. In response, Iran indicated that it would aim at U.S. infrastructure, specifically energy and desalination facilities in the Gulf, should the U.S. proceed with its threat.

Crude prices experienced an uptick in early trading on Monday. West Texas Intermediate futures increased by 1.1%, reaching $99.22 per barrel. International benchmark Brent advanced 1.3% to $113.58. “Clearly, Iran is not backing down,” stated Ben Emons. “The prevailing risk-off sentiment may significantly deteriorate this week, as the initial macroeconomic impacts become apparent through a surge of global PMI data. … The trend of portfolio de-risking could persist, rendering cash a viable asset once more.”

The S&P Global Flash U.S. PMI report is scheduled for release on Tuesday morning. Investors will be monitoring support levels closely. Last week, the S&P 500 fell below its 200-day moving average for the first time since May. Last week, the Dow and Nasdaq experienced declines of approximately 2% each, whereas the S&P 500 recorded a loss of 1.5%. For the Dow, this also signifies its inaugural four-week losing streak since 2023.