Gains in worker productivity will determine AI’s long-term benefits, and investors are looking at national educational performance indicators to forecast where these gains would be most noticeable. Paul Donovan wrote on Friday that European countries may have an advantage in the ultimate mainstream commercial application of AI due to higher reading and numeracy rates among the least qualified people in Europe compared to the US.

“The US may be at a competitive disadvantage relative to other major economies if AI productivity gains are unevenly distributed and disproportionately benefit workers with mid-level education,” he wrote in a post addressed to investors. AI is still considered to be in its early stages of commercial adoption, with many US IT companies primarily concentrating on infrastructure development and buildout.