Despite a flourishing stock market and favourable inflation metrics, public sentiment regarding the economy remains as bleak as it was in the immediate aftermath of the pandemic, with growing apprehension about the prices of essential goods, as indicated by the latest reports. The outcome reveals persistently low approval ratings for President Donald Trump, while Democrats hold only a slight edge regarding public preference for congressional control. The survey of 1,000 registered voters nationwide, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1%, revealed that 61% of the public harbours pessimism regarding the current state of the economy and the future outlook. That is the highest percentage since December 2023, when the country was just emerging from the inflation experienced during the pandemic. Currently, only 25% express optimism regarding the economy, both in the present and looking ahead. “More voters expect things to get worse by a 41/29% margin, leaving the electorate in a distinctly sour mood heading into the midterm election cycle,” said Micah Roberts. In reaction to escalating prices, 47% of the populace indicate a reduction in spending on essential goods, such as food and medical care, reflecting an increase of 6 percentage points from the survey conducted in April. Two-thirds indicate they are cutting back on nonessential purchases, such as dining out and entertainment, reflecting an increase of 5 points. Registered voters indicate a notable decrease in travel and an increased reliance on credit cards compared to April. These figures emerge against the backdrop of a recent downturn in oil and petrol prices and are juxtaposed with the consistent and moderate growth observed in national retail sales.

However, the national figures may be influenced by expenditures from affluent individuals. The All-America survey reveals that 60% of individuals earning less than $30,000 are cutting back on essential expenditures, in contrast to merely 35% of those with incomes exceeding $100,000. The survey’s Democratic and Republican pollsters both indicate that the slight decline in petrol prices observed in recent weeks fails to counterbalance the enduring impacts of both recent and historical price increases. “People are still paying a lot more for stuff than they were a year and a half ago, two years ago, and that’s recent enough in memory that it still hurts and it still drives a lot of anger,″ stated Jay Campbell. “When gas prices drop 50 cents for a month, that’s just not enough to make up the difference.” Trump’s approval ratings continue to languish in negative territory, remaining largely consistent with the findings. The latest survey indicated that the president’s net approval rating stands at 40%, with 59% expressing disapproval, reflecting a decline of 1 point compared to the April survey. Sixty percent express disapproval regarding his management of the economy, while 38% indicate approval. Both changes fall within the poll’s margin of error; however, at -22, they position the president at the lowest approval rating of his political career. The survey revealed that the public disapproves of Trump’s management of the war with Iran by a margin of 63% to 35%, as well as his approach to inflation and the cost of living, which garnered a disapproval rate of 68% to 31%.

Currently, the Democratic Party holds a 4-point lead in congressional preference, a figure that has remained stable since April. This suggests that the party is experiencing only a modest gain from the prevailing discontent regarding the economy and the situation in Iran. “It indicates that Democrats hold a favourable position at this juncture, five months ahead of the election, yet it is not a decisive advantage,” Campbell stated. “It does not indicate a wave at this time, and I believe that serves as my baseline.” Both pollsters indicated a distinctly polarised electorate that appears to be “locked into” their respective parties, demonstrating a hesitance to shift allegiances despite any apprehensions they may harbour regarding the economy. The survey indicated that partisans are solidifying their support for their respective parties compared to April, which largely counterbalances each other and results in no alteration in the overall preference for congressional control. It is also a context in which each faction has been characterising the other through their most extreme positions, achieving a degree of success in this endeavour.

Half of all voters express scepticism towards a democratic socialist candidate, while 32% indicate their willingness to offer support. An endorsement by the president is perceived negatively, with 52% indicating they would not support a candidate receiving such backing. Among the candidates who identify as MAGA, the survey indicates that 57% of the public expressed an unwillingness to offer their support. On the most pressing issues, each party possesses distinct advantages. Democrats hold a 7-point advantage on the primary concern, the cost of food and groceries, and a 3-point edge on the second-most pressing issue, “protecting democracy.” However, Republicans hold a 22-point lead on the third issue — immigration and border security — representing the most significant advantage among the 10 issues identified. That is succeeded by a 6-point Democratic lead regarding housing and an 18-point advantage concerning the cost of healthcare. Democrats, independents, and women, particularly those aged 18-49, prioritise the cost of food as their foremost concern. White voters and voters of colour, as well as voters across all income brackets, with the exception of the highest income group, specifically emphasise the importance of “protecting democracy.”

Among major demographic groups, Republicans uniquely prioritise immigration as their foremost concern. Meanwhile, voters aged 18-34 prioritise housing as the foremost concern, with 46% identifying it as a significant issue. The expenditure on food for the youngest cohort ranks as a distant second, accounting for 33%. Among the most pronounced divisions in the survey are those related to the conflict with Iran, which has seen a decline in support relative to the April survey. Only 48% of the public now considers the military action against Iran justified in its aim to hinder the nation’s capacity to develop nuclear weapons, a decline from 53% recorded in April. Half of the population now believes it is not worth the effort, an increase from 44% in the previous survey. The president’s net approval regarding Iran has decreased to -28, reflecting a decline of 3 points compared to the previous survey. Trump faces significant opposition from segments of his own party regarding the Iran war. Only 47% of non-MAGA Republicans, who constitute approximately one-third of the GOP, express approval of the president’s management of Iran, while 50% show approval. In contrast, 86% of MAGA Republicans express support for the president’s management of the issue.